Manfromearth The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility"

Practical Philosophy For The Financial Market Dreamers

Review

The book tackles the induction problem. The induction problem states that a universal rule can not be established from a number of observations. For example; if all the swans you have seen in your entire life are white, that should not lead you to conclude that all swans are white.
Indeed Europeans believed all swans are white, until black swans were discovered in Australia. Some still do!
What made the book so interesting to so many people is its applicability to the financial market. The author is a hedge fund manager, a very successful one, but he makes his money in a very unconventional way.
He short the market, meaning he makes money if the market goes down, and he makes huge amount of money if the market crashes!!
His reasoning, which proved to be right especially after the financial crisis of 2007-2008, is that people underestimate the likelihood of the occurrence of improbable events.
He is viewed as a villain by many people, especially the financial institutions, and a hero by many me included.
I read this book in 2007, I wish I fully understood it, if I did; I would have made a lot of money, alas I didn’t, and I am still as poor as ever!!
If you are into philosophy or finance, this book is a must read.

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